Blueprint One- a building plan for a Lloyd’s digital/culture change decade, or pie in the culture change sky?

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It’s really a tour de force, the 146 page Blueprint One recently released by leadership at Lloyd’s, a detailed road map for the staff and approximate ninety syndicate players that comprise the firm, its reinsurers, customers, associated MGAs, vendors, brokers and agents.  Plans, flow charts and implementation strategy that are planned for the next two years, with all the new moving parts in synch by close of 2022.  Oh, and did I mention the £35 billion in annual premiums that the organization generates through its stakeholders?  Bold plans for a three-hundred-year tenure organization.  And there is the unmentioned tension- an entrenched business model planning to evolve into an agile, cutting edge tech leader.

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance consultant, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners in his day job. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.

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Lloyd’s is the industry standard bearer for specialty risk management, AKA ‘the stuff an underwriter can’t thumb to in his/her U/W manual’.  Its technique and mystique have evolved during the more than three centuries since a few gents sat in front of some pints and pondered financial hedges against loss of shipping cargos.  Why then, does the firm think that several months of research, interviews, participant interviews, technology vendor schemes, and resulting blueprint from Lime St are the best answers to changing the course of the culture and operations of a complex global insurer?

Consider this voice from the street (location to remain unmentioned):

“Sadly, it seems that Lloyds underwriters have developed a degree of contempt for the XXXX market, over the last year I’ve seen the worst performance from certain Lloyds underwriters I’ve ever experienced in the last 20 years or so. In particular, not having renewal terms ready in time when renewal submissions have gone in well on time. It’s definitely a hard market from where I’m standing, and it isn’t particularly civilised either!”

Well, hard markets currently abound for many reasons across the globe, and anecdotal responses are a little unfair.  But the basis of the speaker’s concerns may not be- Lloyd’s is a huge, multi-variate, multi-cultural, global organization that cannot be changed under dictate, singular plan, or silo-driven flow chart.  Underwriters remain subject to the performance matrix of the day, and grand plans from on high take a rear seat when quotas aren’t met, or loss ratios are trending north.  Additionally, the firm remains entangled in aftereffects of sexual harassment accusations, mitigating the perceived impact of an over-arching office culture of suits and club decorum (although well past the days of PFLs), and recent years’ declining profitability.  Can Blueprint One be communicated, integrated and adapted uniformly in the face of these challenges? And can the evolution avoid the strong effects of the “Quarterlies?”

Culture and process changes aren’t new with the advent of Insurtech, innovation, globalization or change of leadership.  Much of what the blueprint discusses has its foundation in technology and transparency across the organization’s depth and breadth.  At its core we are talking insurance, so the topic may be busy, but it’s not rocket science.  Identify risk, understand risk, price risk, hedge risk, service occurrences that confirm risk (claims), and pay less than is taken in.  The firm is smart, therefore, to look to leverage technology for easy inclusion of participants across many regions and many forms of access, easier aggregation of business, more effective application of information, collection of data, and so on.

Consider the Blueprint’s ‘what it is’:

  • The firm’s strategic intent, description of vision.
  • Current thinking on each of six identified solutions-
    • Complex Risk platform
    • Lloyd’s Risk Exchange
    • Claims Solution
    • Capital Solution
    • Syndicate in a Box
    • Services Hub
  • Details of the initial phase of each solution
  • Invoking cooperation from Lloyd’s market players in the firm’s future
  • How and why success will be gained.

That’s on page 7 of the 146 page blueprint; it is an ambitious, wide scale road map.

It’s clear the more complex a plan is the greater the chance of incomplete implementation; the more incomplete or disuniformity of implementation the greater the chance of not achieving success.  The firm has its plan, its foundation for success, if the plan can be implemented.

Skipping forward to “Why we will succeed,” on page 11 , and I chime in with some observations that the principles suggest from other large org’s culture/ops changes:

  1. Capitalize on prior market investments (that’s funds spent previously on innovation).
    • This the “not throwing the baby out with the bathwater” approach. How to include the capital investments of the past few years in how we move forward.  A small anchor on innovative thought?
  2. Learn from the past
    • There are plenty of reorg carcasses along the wayside, let’s figure ways to have innovation not die at birthing. Of course putting the words, “Our collaborative approach to building the Future at Lloyd’s will ensure the solutions are designed for the benefit of Lloyd’s and the wider London market,” are contradictory right out of the box.  Perhaps solutions designed by and for Lloyd’s global staff and customers might sound more collaborative.
  3. Communicate regularly
    • Cascade those ideas from Lime St. to the world.
  4. Ensure the corporation and the market has (sic) the right skills to deliver the plan
    • Collaborators- prepare to invest time and money in change management plans that will be as successful as any change management programs. Can’t buy success.
  5. Deliver value to the market quickly
    • The rollout cannot interrupt business. There are those darn quarterly reports.
  6. Deliver the technology in parts
    • Deliver solutions in parts- of course each discipline needs different starting points; the law of unintended consequences will prevail.
  7. Retain control and operational responsibility (for tech)
    • Autonomy is resolving rollout issues will be suppressed to ensure uniformity. There will be scapegoats.
  8. Ensure the appropriate governance is in place
    • Central control of the collaborative integration. Decision making is the firm’s.

Rather than ramble on I am going to shamelessly borrow some innovation/org change concepts from a Property Casualty 360 article penned by Ira Sopic, Global Project Director at Insurance Nexus that has an apt perspective- “Agility is the key to technology innovation for insurers.”  But let’s build a contrast from Lloyd’s presentation.

Agile?  Can a global, £35 billion insurance giant be agile?  Do Lloyd’s customers demand innovation, or will they benefit materially from innovation?  We can see what the author and Lee Ng, VP of Innovation at Travelers Insurance say.

Fundamentally, the article notes org agility means looking at how decisions are made across an org and making significant changes.  That’s ambiguous until the addition of, “you can’t prove innovation before it happens.”  Uncertainty of innovation’s results can be overdone with analysis.  ‘Agile’ is the opposite of ‘waterfall’, an approach where plans and decisions are made at the top and cascaded down through the org as steps in a process are encountered.  Rolling out comprehensive plans by their nature inhibit iteration- big plans have milestones, have successive designs, benchmarks and schedules.  Agile has ideas, iterative maps, acceptance of failures.  Lloyd’s has established a grand approach to the former method- I kid you not, here’s an exemplar flow chart of planned core technology:

Core tech

Many participants influencing and accessing the tech core of the firm, and those magical skeleton keys to open the doors- APIs and interfaces.

Continuing, agile can be successfully piecemeal- protect the primary ROI factors of the biz, experiment with agile ways of working with collateral functions, build the innovative environment without whacking the quarterlies.  The inherent problem with piecemeal approaches?  They are hard to measure for success, and hard to program into project management software.

Another agile tack to take? “Done is better than perfect’.  Resist the urge to over plan, over measure, and to set expectations that the first attempt is a go or no go for the entire org.  A popular innovation concept applies- try, and fail fast.  Then try again.  There are many vendors who are experts in narrow parts of an org’s innovation path- it’s OK to rely on them.  Investment in a POC or two is as good as implementation.

Perhaps another day will allow discussion of the plans for the six Solutions, particularly Claims and Risk Exchange (the nexus of provision of service and of customers’ expectations from the firm.)  In spite of a skeptical take on the Blueprint I certainly want Lloyd’s to remain the bastion of risk management in a increasing risky world, but the concern is the firm is approaching this insurance elephant as a full take away meal, instead of as tapas.

In closing consider this- if there are five levels of Blueprint implementation and each effort has a 98% probability of success, after the five levels there is an aggregate probability of integration success of 90%.  That’s not bad, unless the interplay of five operational areas serving clients is considered with 90% effectiveness at play- aggregate 59% average Blueprint compliance outcome.

Consider those little bites, Lloyd’s.  The industry is pulling for you.

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Can industry changes soften a hard property insurance market in California?

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There are suggestions of hardening markets for US property insurance participants, and there is no better example of this than what is occurring in California.  Non-renewals in wildfire prone areas, premium increases, reductions in coverage and the seeming ultimate reaction- regulatory prohibition of policy non-renewals.

How did the state get to this point, and is there a lesson to be gained for any area that is exposed to regional maximum losses?  Is the hardening multi-trillion dollar California homeowners market a bellwether for others?

 

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance consultant, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.

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Hard Market — in the insurance industry, the upswing in a market cycle, when premiums increase and capacity for most types of insurance decreases. Can be caused by a number of factors, including falling investment returns for insurers, increases in frequency or severity of losses, and regulatory intervention deemed to be against the interests of insurers.[1]

 

An on point definition of a hard market for the California property insurance market prompted in great part by successive years of severe wildfires throughout the state, a circumstance that recently culminated in the state’s insurance commissioner to enact temporary regulations that prohibit non-renewal of homeowners’ policies for one million insured properties located within wildfire-prone areas. The commissioner’s action came as a result of insurance premiums in affected areas rising to seemingly unaffordable levels, in carriers refusing to underwrite properties, and in delayed recovery in wildfire areas due to limited availability of hazard insurance.

[1] https://www.irmi.com/term/insurance-definitions/hard-market

How did a bad fire situation get worse? Two years of homeowners’ lines’ loss ratios averaging in the 190 range, or $1.90 being paid out for every dollar of earned premium.  Who expects carriers to absorb that extent of loss without an according rise in premiums?  Let’s take a look at how the state got there (we’ll set aside the climate risk and fire damage negligence/liability discussion), and how things aren’t as simple as one might think.

Loss History

The state’s homeowners’ carriers were essentially the same in 2017-2018 as they were in the ten years preceding the heavy wildfire years.  Why does that matter?  Consider this chart of data for HO line earned premium, losses, and loss ratios for the ten years prior:[2]

CA Premiums Losses

[2] http://www.insurance.ca.gov/01-consumers/120-company/04-mrktshare/2018/upload/MktShrSummary2018wa_RevisedAug1519.pdf

$37.4 billion surplus of earned premiums over losses incurred during that ten-year span. That is not bad.

 

If one looks at the 2017 and 2018 results, the numbers flip:

Earned premiums–           $15.6 billion

Losses incurred–               $29 billion, or a $13.4 billion deficit. That gets companies’ attention.

A significant compounding concern for carriers for the 2017-18 period is that the losses were compressed into repetitive geographic areas, reflect concentration of maximum losses within same, and the factors behind the peril have not materially changed. So even though there was a $37 billion surplus noted for the ten years prior, carriers (being forward looking for revenues) reacted not only to raise premiums, but to restrict available coverage and restrict the scope of coverage, classic hard market characteristics.

Premiums and pricing

If the discussion continues to market factors regarding historic pricing, more evidence of the roots of a hard market come to the surface. Average homeowners’ policy premiums for the state relative to median property values are significantly skewed in comparison with other states with higher population and exposure to concentrated risk:[3]

States Premium

[3] data from https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/how-much-does-homeowners-insurance-cost/#average-homeowners-insurance-cost-by-state

So the case builds for how a hard market builds- premium levels that seemingly fail to consider the potential effects of regional peril occurrences.  California having premium values one quarter of those in Florida?  There is also significant evidence that- on average- properties have been under-insured for value in that post-disaster rebuilding costs are exceeding coverage limits. The market (through pricing history) inadvertently set its own table for hardening.  And it’s not just carriers- homeowners and financing institutions are partners in the issue.

Coverage

Homeowners do have options when persons have are unable to obtain voluntary insurance due to circumstances beyond their control- the state’s default insurer, the FAIR (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) plan.  The state’s FAIR plan provides limited coverage for primary perils but its use requires property owners to have separate wrap around policies in order to have cover that reasonably matches the benefits of voluntary cover.  The FAIR plan is a syndicate pool supported by the state’s property insurance carriers, so think of it as analogous to auto/motor risk pool insurance.

Increasing the number of persons accessing the insurance of last resort is one thing, but considering a recent order by the state insurance commissioner to require FAIR to provide broadened coverage limits[4] (to $3 million) and broadened peril coverage (to mirror an ISO HO-3 policy form) seems (per FAIR leadership) to exceed the commissioner’s authority.  Right or wrong, the change in the FAIR plan does not alleviate the issues with concentration of risk, actuarially supported rates, or the fundamental fact that risk factors need to be mitigated.

[4] https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2019/11/14/548537.htm

What to do?

Property insurance is a keystone to any economy- borrowing, recovery, risk sharing, and risk management, etc. Absent a thriving insurance industry, a jurisdiction simply will flag in comparison with other areas. A hardening market is a wake-up call that the inherent cycle of insurance is at an attention point- carriers see challenges in the near future and are retracting access to insurance and placing a premium on price, even if company capital levels are currently higher than average.  Soft markets certainly reflect the reverse, but who complains when underwriting is easier and rate taking is de-emphasized? The surpluses in premiums gained during 2007-2016 are long forgotten.

Ideally the market would:

  • Set premiums at a level anticipating significant regional events
  • Price wildfire risk into all policies in the state (everyone gets affected when these events occur)
  • Leverage the available capital surplus and interest from reinsurers
  • Partner with private risk vehicles (ILS, Cat bonds) for broader backstopping of risk
  • Consider wildfire cover that is similar to earthquake or wind covers, with more substantial deductibles for that peril
  • Adopt complementary parametric plans that trigger when wildfires occur, providing immediate recovery funding to affected property owners rather than wait for government programs alone (that may take years to administer)
  • Refrain from using FAIR plan changes to circumvent needed changes in voluntary policies/underwriting/pricing
  • Tread very cautiously before having regulators take anecdotal actions ex post to occurrences
  • Implement immediate subsidies for areas that suffered direct and as yet unrecovered damage- not taking action affects all

With these efforts being in conjunction with all efforts being made to mitigate risk factors, encouraging behavior changes, and encouraging policies more in keeping with risk management- climate, economic, and functional.

Why this?

The state has other, potentially bigger concerns with risk- earthquakes.  Wildfire risk has had terrible effects, multi-billion dollar effects, most often in more remote or less densely populated areas than urban Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Oakland, heavily populated and developed high-risk earthquake areas.  EQ insurance penetration (approximately 11% of property owners) suggests uninsured losses will far eclipse wildfire losses if a significant quake occurs, and there is not enough resources (currently) for the state to back-fill an EQ disaster recovery.  The entire country will be affected.

And what of the balance of the world’s economies?  A recent Swiss Re Institute assessment of insurance protection globally denotes an estimated $222 billion natural disaster gap[5], a number that again would be overshadowed by temblor damage in developed regions.  What of the wildfires in Australia, where the affected areas are more than six times greater than the 2018 California wildfires affected?

 

Hardening of insurance markets- that’s a challenge for insurance customers, but for markets like California’s homeowners’ lines it’s a precursor for what may be coming elsewhere.

[5] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/56236161

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The InsurTechs were nestled all snug in their beds, with visions of 2020 dancing in their heads

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It’s the end of 2019, an auspicious year for insurance and InsurTech, and it’s the end of the year with expectations in the business world for business results and (hopeful) bonuses.  And of course there is the wondrous shadow of December holidays over all, with visions of sugarplums dancing in heads.

Not everyone celebrates a Christmas holiday, Chanukah, or Eid, but one cannot avoid the end of year holiday gifting and hopes.

In keeping with that spirit this final InsurTech column for 2019 wishes all well for the season and bright things for 2020.

Patrick Kelahan is a CX, engineering & insurance professional, working with Insurers, Attorneys & Owners. He also serves the insurance and Fintech world as the ‘Insurance Elephant’.

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There are some friends and businesses for whom its hoped that Santa/Father Christmas/whoever finds holiday gifts.  All deserving, all have been good this year.

  • Parametric insurance– better understanding within the industry of its opportunities for cover and dramatic growth
  • John Bachmann, Social Survey– more vowels so his customer experience video series can carry on into 2020
  • Zurich Insurance- Mark Budd and Nicola Cannings– full subscription for its innovation contest
  • Erika Kriszan– recognition as the founder of the quietest best InsurTech conference- MOI Vienna
  • IRDAI– prudence in choosing the twenty participants in the Indian insurance sandbox
  • Coverager– all the respect they deserve for keeping the insurance industry informed

Holidays – any holiday – are such a great opportunity to focus on bringing the family together.  Lidia Bastianich

  • Paolo Sironi– a platform to expose his finance and economics ‘chops’ to a broader audience
  • The Daily Fintech– continued recognition as a best-in-class Fintech/InsurTech/blockchain/crypto resource, and being seen as the best value within the respective blogs’ world
  • Michael Porpora– a project for 2020 that outdoes his 2019 365 days of connections
  • Robin Kiera– a championship for the Hamburg football team
  • Nomaan Bashir– 2% insurance cover penetration within the Pakistani market
  • Lloyd’s of London– a balance beam to help the venerable institution integrate business and org change into its 300-year-old club
  • Insurance Nerds– continued traction advocating for insurance and continuity of the many of are privileged to work in insurance jobs

The holiday season is a perfect time to reflect on our blessings and seek out ways to make life better for those around us. Terri Marshall 

  • Benekiva– beneficiary first in every life insurance company’s stocking
  • Ukrainian InsurTechs– realization that there are great things happening in the industry there that have nothing to do with global politics
  • Intellect SEEC– more storage capacity to hold all those data
  • The California Dept of Insurance– an understanding that best intentions can produce unintended consequences
  • Lemonade Insurance– markers of many colors to try as an alternative to magenta
  • Rahul Mather– rest.
  • Road Warriors– time at home

Merry Merry and Happy New Year.

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Is Lack of Trust a First Order Function in Narrowing the Insurance Protection Gap?

image The Geneva Association released an ambitious discussion of trust and its effect on insurance transactions, particularly in the perspective of well-known ‘protection gaps’ that are pervasive across many lines of insurance within mature economies.  Is, as Jad Ariss, Association Managing Director notes in the publication’s foreword, a “lack of trust fundamentally impeding insurance demand,” […]

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Innovate from the customer backwards- but caveat innovator!

image The insurance industry is in large part past the hysteria of disruption, innovation and entrants solving the issues of the insurance world, and is moving into the stage of implementation, collaboration and iteration. Startups that have gained traction are now broadening their markets, and in some cases, their offerings. And, the industry is recognizing […]

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What is the future of insurance?

image Have we seen the future of insurance? No, unless you have conquered the whole space-time continuum thing, or yours is a parallax view of the insurance industry to come.  Is there good discussion and collaboration addressing what that future might be? Yes, if this week’s buffet of InsurTech news pieces is any indication, and […]

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Two insurance innovations roads to be taken- it’s not all tech

image The Innovation road diverged in an InsurTech wood, And while I wanted to travel both And be one searcher, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it was lost in unknown techo growth;   Then took the other, as just as fair, And an improving process that […]

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SME insurance- you can lead a horse to water, can you make it drink?

image If 40% of the U.S. and EU business owners do not have property and liability insurance, and 70+ % are underinsured, and the existing market is already more than US $60 billion in premiums, is there not an opportunity for growing the commercial line business, particularly for small and medium size enterprises (SMEs)? Of […]

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Wildfires and disasters- ecosystem opportunity to leverage InsurTech and innovation

Image Take a US $8 billion dollar insurance business that serves more than 7 million customers annually regarding residential real estate assets valued at more than US $5 trillion, that’s working in a regulated, politically hyped environment and one might see opportunity for innovation.  Throw in significant exposure to regional wildfires and urban area earthquakes, […]

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Wildfires and disasters- terribly good opportunity to leverage InsurTech and innovation

Image Take a US $8 billion dollar insurance business that serves more than 7 million customers annually regarding residential real estate assets valued at more than US $5 trillion, that’s working in a regulated, politically hyped environment and one might see opportunity for innovation.  Throw in significant exposure to regional wildfires and urban area earthquakes, […]

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