The new year will shape up to be one of the brightest years for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. Not to be misunderstood, this is not a price prediction. I expect 2020 to be a year the industry matures at an accelerated pace. On the crypto-native side, we will see continued innovative technical breakthroughs. On the institutional side, we can expect an increase in sophistication, in terms of education, infrastructure and more attractive product offerings. Bitcoin has demonstrated the ability to bounce back from almost anything. The first decade was defined by Bitcoin, but the next will define which cryptocurrency emerges to rival traditional currencies. 

Ilias Louis Hatzis is the Founder at Mercato Blockchain Corporation AG and a weekly columnist at DailyFintech.com.

For those of you that don’t follow the ups and downs of Bitcoin, you probably missed how terrible 2018 was, with the price falling by 83 percent from a historical all-time high in late 2017.  This year has been a rebound year, After the first three months of the year, we’ve seen a steady recovery take place, with increasing optimism returning to the market.

As we are about to start the new year and Bitcoin’s second decade, let not forget that in its first decade, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset making unimaginable returns for investors.

What we’ve seen in 2019 is a continued evolution, that’s been happening for some years now. While the crypto industry is still in a prototype state and doesn’t scale well for the most part, we are now starting to see the beginning of scaling. These last 10 years have really been about developing a sufficient amount of bridges, roads and tunnels, the underlying infrastructure to make cryptocurrencies available to more and more people.

We now have the infrastructure to launch scalable decentralized applications on blockchain. We have blockchains that can handle large user bases, with low latency, little friction and zero fees. Now we can build just about anything on blockchain, that we can build on the traditional Internet. We are entering a period where the focus will shift to building services and protocols on top of the existing Bitcoin layer, by a new crop of entrepreneurs and startups.

The big event that’s coming up in May 2020, the “halving”, will be different than in the past. Every four years when the halving happens, the block reward shrinks by 50 percent. But this time it will be even more important, because of the level of maturity the industry has compiled. The diminished new supply of coins will mean that the supply and demand equation will improve. But because investors already know when it’s going to happen, there’s already been some movement in preparation, so I don’t think it will have the impact that most people think it will.

I feel more excited, much more than anytime in the last 18 months, because it feels like we are picking up momentum. Bitcoin is up this week, although it’s been down over the last month or so, but I think we are seeing a level of momentum that’s been building up for the most part of 2019. Detractors have become advocates, big money has been coming in, big tech is taking its first stab at it and governments are fueling their rockets. It feels like everyone’s putting on their jumpsuits, getting ready to take off, something we haven’t seen since 2017.

While 2017 was a crazy year with projects raising absurd amounts of money through token sales, 2018 was a down year and in 2019 it became much harder, resulting in less and less garbage. While there is some still out there, investors are getting much more discerning, being able to spot the good from the bad. I expect token sales and IEOs will rekindle this year, but with the bottom chunk of the market dropping out and less projects raising money this way, the good one’s will be in a much better position to reach their goals.

In 2020, we will continue to see cryptocurrency payments gain momentum. More governments and big businesses will announce their own cryptocurrencies, and while this legitimizes the industry, we should be skeptical. Poorly executed crypto projects will continue to be weeded out. We’ll see more and more cryptocurrencies that popped up in 2017 fade away, going to zero. Bitcoin’s halving in May could spike the price. By now Bitcoin has proven itself as a long-term investment and store of value, so expect people that believe to continue to HODL, regardless of price fluctuations.

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Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house
Not a trader was trading, not even a mouse;
The stocking were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that Saint Nicholas and Trezor were there;
Investors were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of Bitcoins danced in their heads;
The sell orders were posted on exchanges with care,
In hopes that a Bull Rally soon would be there;
More rapid than lightning, the rallies they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;
“Now Bitcoin! Now Litecoin! Now Ether and Ripple!
If Monero can double, then you can triple;
The mining rigs hummed in the cellar with clatter,
In hopes that new bitcoins would soon be there;
From Papa John’s pizza all the way to the moon,
You all will be riding the rocket ship soon;
I heard him exclaim as he checked coin market cap,
Merry Crypto to all and HODL for now!

Ilias Louis Hatzis is the Founder at Mercato Blockchain Corporation AG and a weekly columnist at DailyFintech.com

This year, 2019 was a decent ride picking up steam after the first quarter, while 2020 doesn’t seem ready to slow down or put on the brakes. Instead 2020, might be a breakaway year, especially after the halving in May.

Who would of guessed that Libra’s wheels would come off? That Wyoming would be the only US state with friendly regulations for digital assets and digital-banking? That Bitcoin would have triple-digit gains since December 2018, when the market bottomed out? That cyberattackers compromised the Binance and made off with $41 million in Bitcoin? That Wall Street moved in with J.P. Morgan rolling out their own coin? That China went from a complete ban of cryptocurrencies to a highly publicized all in attitude on the blockchain? That crypto index funds and ETFs, among other things, would show us that with crypto, wealth building is for everybody?

Nevertheless, 2020 is swiftly approaching and it’s time to start the crypto predictions.

#1 Libra: Will go live, but with limited functionality
Governments worldwide work overtime to regulate the rapid emergence of cryptocurrencies and companies in the industry. Facebook has faced enormous hurdles from regulators across the globe, for Libra. It’s not even certain whether the project will be launched at all, if regulators are fully in line with it. But iteration is part of Facebook’s core fabric. Nine years ago Zuckerberg said at a press conference, “We’re trying to be innovative and iterative with our development”. I think this will be how they approach the regulatory problems. An iterative approach can result in ever-closer approximations of a solution, as accuracy improves with each step. Most likely, Libra will go live in one jurisdiction and with very limited scope, partners and functionality, as Facebook iterates everything.

#2 Digital yuan to be followed by digital euro and dollar
While in recent years, China has moved to regulate the cryptocurrency industry, it has been avid supported of blockchain and has been developing its own digital currency, that it will launch in 2020. There has been a consensus among central banks that they need to control money. Mark Carney of the Bank of England, was probably the first leading central banker to talk about the importance for the West to embrace crypto and digitally-enabled money. Christine Lagarde, the ECB chief and former Managing Director of the IMF, thinks a digital euro is a good thing for the EU. It is very likely that Steve Mnuchin, US secretary of the treasury, will announce the digital dollar in 2020, continuing his past narrative about tracking cryptocurrencies.

#3 Developing nations will embrace Bitcoin
While the big global economies are working on the their own versions of fiat backed cryptocurrencies, there are three billion people around the world that don’t trust in their government issued money. Across developing nations in South America and Africa (Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Zimbabwe etc) , we’ve seen rapid adoption for Bitcoin. I expect that across many developing nations in the world, people will want to have a form of digital money that they can rely on.

#4 Stablecoin heaven
The stablecoin trend will continue. While stablecoins are still in the discovery stage, they have become the holy grail, with dozens of projects trying to develop a digital currency with low-volatility, that can withstand speculative attacks and debasement. In 2019, the stablecoin market cap grew from $3.3 to $5 billion. In 2020, the stablecoin market will exceed $20 billion, as we see the launch of Libra and a few others and multi-collateral DAI, accepting BTC and other assets as collateral.

#5 The Lightning Network will do great things
The existence of the Lightning Network on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, already enables cheap, private and instant transactions and payments. The current number of nodes are 10,861 and the number of channels is at 35,000, with the network capacity at 859 BTC (or $6.5 million). In December 2019, Bitfinex announced that their exchange would support Lightning Network transactions. Now even Airbnb allows customers to book stays using the Lightning Network via the Fold App. In 2020, we will see an increased number of applications like the Breez app, created on the Lightning Network.

The new year, we will see crypto and blockchain move from away from something that’s trying to disrupt the old, into mainstream and becoming a bigger part of daily lives. With China’s digital currency set to be rolled out in 2020, digital money will come to the front and center stage. As global governments embark on a new moon race, to launch their own cryptocurrencies, mainstream adoption is set to accelerate.

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According to Deutsche Bank the current money system is fragile. Deutsche Bank sees that by 2030 digital currencies will rise to over 200 million users. In the “Imagine 2030” report, Deutsche Bank suggests that digital currency could eventually replace cash one day, as demand for anonymity and a more decentralized means of payment grows.

Deutsche Bank Ilias Louis Hatzis is the Founder at Mercato Blockchain Corporation AG and a weekly columnist at DailyFintech.com

Usually this time of year, we start to read price predictions about Bitcoin going to a million bucks a coin. I’ve never been a big fan of price predictions. Some get them right, and most get them wrong. Price predictions are about short term gains, that are usually very fickle.

But a week ago, I read an interesting prediction in the news. Deutsche Bank made a very bold statement. The German bank published a research report called Imagine 2030. In this report the bank says that cryptocurrencies are currently just additions to the current money payment system. However, in the next decade they could be replacements.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the number of cryptocurrency users will grow 4x in the next ten years, reaching 200 million. This growth is almost same as that of Internet in its first 20 years.

The parallels between the Internet and crypto are stunning. Until Mosaic, the Internet was publicly funded and primarily used an academic setting. But enlightened policymakers decided to legalize commercial activity on the Internet. While, the Internet’s commercial use started with most people and businesses not knowing how to connect or use the Internet, the rails were put in place that would eventually change the future of everything.

The breakout years of simplified usage and huge user growth are not far away. The talent is abundant, the capital is here and the conditions like economic inclusion and freedom are ripe.

But, for all this to happen, there is one big uncertain x-factor. How will governments approach cryptocurrencies? For Deutsche Bank’s prediction to come true, we need enlightened policymakers that will legitimize cryptocurrencies. The report states: “First, they must become legitimate in the eyes of governments and regulators”. Very, true!

Crypto regulation could be just around the corner. As regulatory hurdles are surmounted, cryptocurrencies may become legitimate substitutes for fiat currency. Many governments will not sit by and lose control of the money supply without a vicious fight. Libra and other stablecoins may ultimately provide the road map to more widespread adoption, with stronger oversight by government regulators.

What’s even more remarkable about the report is a section that’s entitled “The end of fiat money?” That’s pretty wild, when you consider that this report comes from a huge global bank. What people in the cryptocurrency community have known for a while, banks are starting to realize now. But that’s good news!

The real victim of crypto may not be fiat, but plastic cards. For decades now, we’ve been slowly phasing out cash. Cash, credit and debit cards are slowly becoming obsolete and may continue on this course, as crypto acceptance increases. When you think about the evolution, we moved from paper money and coins to online transactions and debit/credit cards. The rise of mobile payments through WeChat Pay, AliPay and Paypal already makes plastic cards redundant. Blockchain offers plenty pf advantages over plastic cards, but the basic difference between the two, is that all payments and transfers are done with the user’s full consent. Deutsche Bank believes that plastic cards could die. As cryptocurrency adoption increases, it’s only logical to assume that credit cards will disappear. We simply won’t need them anymore.

Deutsche Bank is spot on with its prediction.

But, predictions are always tricky. Hindsight is 20/20. Right now, everyone wants to believe. We can taste the decentralized future. Things take time, but the countdown has begun. Cryptocurrencies have become more popular than you think. According to a survey, approximately 18% of students based in the US either own at least one digital currency or have owned one in the past.

Crypto can be both good and evil, like everything else in life. Many people fail to understand the real value of cryptocurrency, because they’re only focused on speculative trading, driven by price and volatility.

Crypto offers a unique solution that renders fiat currency obsolete. Cryptocurrency empowers people to be their own bank and payment method. The primary challenges are regulatory and technical. The deciding factor on whether crypto will replace cash is user-adoption. But, once fully booted and integrated in our lives, cryptocurrency will make the world will look completely different, in ways we can only begin to understand.

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